Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Batting second

Ok – it’s the start of the Super Eight. So, I suppose I should do a follow up of the Batting Second issue. In my previous post on this subject, I examined Simon Widle’s thesis that sides batting second have an advantage. This seemed correct, as I found that 78% of chasing sides win*. Now that the first stage is complete, does this result still hold?

Adding to the list, there have been the following matches:

12. India beat Bermuda.
13. Zimbabwe lost to West Indies.
14. New Zealand beat Kenya.
15. Scotland lost to South Africa.
16. Sri Lanka beat Bangladesh.
17. Pakistan beat Zimbabwe.
18. New Zealand beat Canada.
19. Scotland lost to Netherlands.
20. Sri Lanka beat India.
21. Ireland lost to West Indies
22. Australia beat South Africa.
23. Kenya lost to England.
24. Bermuda lost to Bangladesh.

From this above list, on 6 occasions the chasing side won, whereas 7 times the side batting first had posted enough to win. Of all World Cup matches, sides batting first won 13, sides batting second won 10 and there was one tied game. Not decisive either way, but certainly not supportive of Wilde’s argument.

On the first blog, I eliminated all those matches involving minnows. I will do the same leaving numbers (20) and (22). In both these matches, the side batting first won: 100% record in intra-Big Fish battings. The reverse of my previous findings. However, if I integrated these results with my previous findings, which include warm-ups and upsets, this leaves 11 matches. Of these, seven times the chasers have won, whereas the side batting first has won on four occasions. That is to say, 63% of the time, the side batting second wins, which is a reduction from the original 78% found in the first analysis. Is the World Cup becoming friendly for those batting first?

Anyway, not particularly interesting, really. But I’ll take another look at this after the next stage is complete.

* In matches between Big Fish or upsets.

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